DOGE's disastrous accounting

A core purpose of the U.S. DOGE Service (DOGE), the group of Elon Musk associates infiltrating the federal bureaucracy, is to cut government spending. On February 17, Musk and DOGE claimed they had already cut $55 billion in spending through "fraud detection/deletion, contract/lease cancellations, contract/lease renegotiations, asset sales, grant cancellations, workforce reductions, programmatic changes, and regulatory savings."

DOGE, which is largely staffed by people with no government experience, was unable to substantiate these claims.

The DOGE website initially listed line items for just $16.5 billion in savings. But the data was littered with duplicate entries, data errors, and items that demonstrated a fundamental misunderstanding of the federal contracting process.

Subsequent revisions to the website by DOGE reduced the total documented savings to $7.2 billion. But, somehow, DOGE’s claim that it had documented 20% of the total savings remained unchanged.

Even the $7.2 billion total is a substantial overstatement. According to an analysis of the data by the Wall Street Journal that fixes many of DOGE's mistakes, the actual savings that DOGE has documented is about $2.6 billion over the next year. That is less than 5% of the claimed total of $55 billion.

DOGE claims they are in the process of "balanc[ing] the budget!" The $2.6 billion in savings represents approximately 0.15% of the projected 2025 budget deficit of $1.7 trillion. The Trump administration is proposing changes to the tax code that will increase deficits by $3-4 trillion over the next ten years.

Meanwhile, Musk and President Trump have also floated the idea of issuing rebate checks of up to $5,000 to taxpayers based on savings secured by DOGE. That would require DOGE to implement at least $850 billion in real savings.

What follows is a selection of the most egregious accounting errors committed by DOGE.

DOGE said it saved $232 million by canceling an IT contract. The actual savings was $560,000.

One of the entries on the DOGE website, first reported by The Intercept, claimed to save $232 million by canceling a technology contract with the Social Security Administration. The only aspect of the contract that was canceled, however, was "a project to develop an 'X' gender marker for the agency’s internal databases." That cancellation, part of a larger anti-trans agenda, will produce $560,000 in savings. The rest of the contract is unchanged.

Hundreds of millions in duplicate entries

Politico analyzed the data and identified "at least 14 instances where items are repeated, totaling $325 million in claimed savings." Among the duplicates was "a single $25 million item under the Agriculture Department" that was repeated four times. DOGE counted each vendor authorized to bid on the contract as a separate item. Actually, there are "only two finalized contracts from the vendors listed," and they have "been awarded less than $1 million."

A simple $8 billion error

About half of the savings initially listed by DOGE were based on the cancellation of "a single $8 billion contract for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency." The contract, however, was actually for just $8 million. Only $2.5 million had been spent under the contract in two-and-a-half years.

Misunderstanding the federal contracting process

Another major issue is that DOGE appears unfamiliar with "indefinite quantity contracts," or IDIQ, which "set a ceiling for the funding of a larger project." DOGE canceled one such contract associated with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and claimed $655 million in savings. But CBS News found that the contract had already had $400 million spent through 44 separate subcontracts. Very little, if any, additional money was projected to be spent under the contract. To make matters worse, DOGE counted the $655 million three different times, initially claiming over $1.8 billion in savings when the actual savings were close to zero.

"Savings" from contracts that were already expired or completed

In other cases, DOGE claimed credit for canceling contracts that had already expired. Michigan-based environmental scientist David Reid decided to let "his contract studying invasive species in the St. Lawrence Seaway" expire on December 31, 2024, because he is planning to retire. He was surprised to find the contract included in the list of "savings" claimed by DOGE.

Overall, the Washington Post found "417 of the deals on DOGE’s list indicate that they saved $0" because they were already completed. Another 51 canceled contracts collectively saved less than $1 million.

Entries where the listing and the underlying contract are mismatched

The DOGE website links its claimed savings to information about the contracts on the Federal Procurement Data System. In several cases, however, the claimed savings and the linked contract do not match, raising questions about what contract — if any — was actually canceled. For example, "DOGE reported a canceled contract with National Jewish Health to support research on lung diseases," but linked to "a contract with the University of Oklahoma for cardiovascular research." National Jewish Health told Politico that it had not been informed that its grant had been canceled or cut.

Grossly inflating savings from canceled leases

Along with contracts, the DOGE website boasts of $144 million in savings from "canceling or renegotiating 97 leases for office space and other real estate used by federal agencies." But, according to an analysis from the Washington Post, "[s]ixteen of DOGE’s 20 largest savings on real estate were calculated by assuming that those leases would otherwise have continued for another five years." In fact, "all 20 were already due to expire within the next two years — and most this year." The inflated savings accounts for $104 million of the $144 million of total claimed savings.